A new study projects that extreme heat could cause up to 2.3 million deaths in Europe by the end of the century unless significant progress is made in reducing carbon emissions and adapting to rising temperatures.
Currently, cold temperatures are a more significant cause of death in Europe than heat. However, researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, using simulations across 854 cities, found that while cold-related deaths will decrease gradually with warming temperatures, heat-related deaths will increase dramatically.
Regions like Italy, southern Spain, and Greece are expected to experience substantial increases in heat-related mortality under scenarios with limited emissions reductions and adaptation measures. Conversely, areas such as Scandinavia and the UK may see a decrease in temperature-related deaths due to milder cold temperatures. This finding is detailed in Monday’s journal.
Even under optimistic scenarios—with substantial cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and widespread adaptation—the study’s lead author, Pierre Masselot, indicates a net increase in temperature-related deaths is projected as global temperatures rise.
Masselot notes that the decrease in cold-related deaths in northern regions is offset by significant increases in southern areas where heat-related deaths will be more pronounced.
Masselot highlights the Mediterranean region as a “climate hotspot,” warming faster than the global average, with Malta particularly vulnerable.
The study projects a temperature-related death rate increase of 269 per 100,000 in Malta by the end of the century, contrasting with a slight decrease of 15 per 100,000 in Ireland.
Masselot observes that wealthier western European nations are projected to fare better than their eastern counterparts.
Recent European heatwaves have already resulted in thousands of deaths, notably the 2003 heatwave, which caused approximately 70,000 fatalities.
Large Mediterranean cities are predicted to experience significant increases in heat-related deaths. The study suggests that Barcelona could see nearly a quarter of a million additional deaths, while Rome and Naples could see close to 150,000.
In a scenario with only slightly worse carbon pollution than current trends and minimal adaptation, the study projects over 5.8 million excess heat deaths due to climate change, but also nearly 3.5 million fewer cold deaths. The research team provides a tool where cities and different factors can be adjusted.
Kristie Ebi, a University of Washington public health and climate scientist not involved in the study, commends the research for isolating the impact of climate change, separating it from the effects of an aging population.
Dr. Courtney Howard, a Canadian emergency room physician and vice chair of the Global Climate and Health Alliance (also not involved in the study), confirms the study’s findings align with expected trends, highlighting the dangers of extreme heat, especially for vulnerable populations lacking access to air conditioning.
Masselot emphasizes the need for significant adaptation measures in Europe, such as widespread air conditioning, increased green spaces, and cooling centers, to mitigate projected death rates, noting that North America is less likely to experience such a dramatic trend. He also notes that Europe’s aging population increases its vulnerability.