Tenzin Gyatso has previously indicated that he might be the final Dalai Lama.
However, as thousands of Tibetan Buddhists gathered in Dharamsala, a town in northern India, to commemorate his 90th birthday on July 6, with crowds spilling from temples into nearby parking areas and courtyards in the Himalayan foothills, the spiritual leader of a religion facing an uncertain future delivered a more affirmative message.
“The role of the Dalai Lama will persist,” the 14th Dalai Lama declared in a statement on Wednesday, marking the start of the three-day 15th Tibetan Religious Conference.
The Dalai Lama had previously stated that his 90th birthday would serve as a moment to assess “whether or not” the 600-year-old institution would continue, given ongoing Chinese repression.
Nevertheless, his firm response points to more obstacles ahead.
The Dalai Lama detailed a succession process that further positions him and the religion against Beijing, which has long accused him of separatism and insisted on influencing Tibetan Buddhist leadership.
Here’s what you should know.
China’s stance on the Dalai Lama
The question of whether a future Dalai Lama will exist, and how they will be selected, carries significant geopolitical implications.
Historically, the Dalai Lama served in both spiritual and political capacities. However, the current Dalai Lama established a Tibetan government-in-exile in Dharamsala after China took control of Tibet in the 1950s, though he transferred his formal political power to an elected leader in 2011. Beijing continues to consider the Dalai Lama a threat due to his symbolic influence among Tibetan Buddhists, both within China and globally, and his advocacy for autonomy and religious freedom in his homeland.
Exiled Tibetan leaders and human rights advocates have accused the Chinese government of cultural assimilation through the establishment of boarding schools in the region, suppression of the Tibetan language and culture, widespread surveillance, severe penalties for dissent, and the disappearance of the Panchen Lama.
Imperial China, through a 1793 decree, previously asserted that the reincarnation process and identification of a successor required central government approval. (China has acknowledged this.) Today, even the officially atheist Chinese Communist Party (CCP) maintains that it has the final authority over who will next lead the six-century-old institution.
The Dalai Lama and Tibet’s government-in-exile have rejected China’s assertion, stating that any candidate imposed by Beijing would not be recognized. The Dalai Lama formalized this in a 2011 edict, which grants only his office the authority to recognize the future Dalai Lama—a position he reiterated in his most recent announcement.
How the Dalai Lama says his successor will be chosen
Under the 2011 edict, only the Gaden Phrodrang Trust, the Dalai Lama’s office, can identify the next reincarnation. The specific selection process is not clearly defined but involves interpreting spiritual signs, consulting Dharma protectors—Buddhist deities—and seeking advice from the heads of Tibetan Buddhist traditions.
Conventionally, following the death of the current incumbent, a search for a child reincarnation is conducted in Tibet—historically a boy, although the Dalai Lama has previously mentioned he could return as a girl. After a child is chosen and confirmed, they then spend many years studying to assume their role. The current Dalai Lama was recognized at the age of two.
However, the Tibetan spiritual leader has hinted that his successor might be discovered outside of Tibet, and with Chinese control over the Himalayan region, the search may need to occur elsewhere.
China has previously exerted its influence over the selection of Tibetan Buddhist leaders. The Dalai Lama identified a young boy for the role of the Panchen Lama, the second highest figure in Tibetan Buddhism, after the 10th Panchen Lama’s death in 1989. Yet, the six-year-old was apprehended by Chinese officials in 1995 and reportedly disappeared. Beijing appointed its own alternative Panchen Lama, who expresses loyalty to the CCP.
On Wednesday, the Dalai Lama again emphasized that his office holds the “sole authority” to name his successor and that followers should reject a potential Beijing-appointed Dalai Lama, which drew criticism from China. “No one else possesses any such authority to interfere in this matter,” the Dalai Lama stated.
How China has responded
Due to the symbolic significance the Dalai Lama holds for the Tibetan people, even after his exile, as well as the region’s cultural differences from the rest of China, choosing the next Dalai Lama is even more politically crucial for Beijing.
Already, China has condemned the Dalai Lama’s statement, asserting that “the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama must adhere to the principles of domestic search in China” and “approval by the central government.” Specifically, China’s foreign ministry stated that the successor can only be chosen through a lot-drawing system.
Should China insist on conducting its own selection, observers anticipate that we could end up with two Dalai Lamas. This scenario could become another point of contention between China on one side and Tibet and its allies, including the U.S. and India, on the other.
Penpa Tsering, the former speaker of Tibet’s government-in-exile parliament, stated on Wednesday, “we not only strongly condemn the People’s Republic of China’s use of the reincarnation subject for their political gain, we will never accept it.”
Youdon Aukatsang, a member of Tibet’s parliament-in-exile, similarly told the BBC that a Beijing-chosen Dalai Lama “will not be recognized, not only by the Tibetans but the world will not recognize it because China doesn’t have the legitimacy to find the future Dalai Lama.”
“Despite all these years of trying to control the hearts and minds of Tibetan people inside Tibet,” she added, China has “completely failed.”
—Charlie Campbell contributed.
