Trump’s Support Plummets—But Democrats Could Still Fumble

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Donald Trump is facing significant challenges.

Numerous surveys indicate his approval ratings are at an all-time low. This past weekend saw unprecedented numbers of people protesting, marking the largest single day of political demonstration in the country’s 250-year history. His Department of Homeland Security is still closed due to the inability of his Republican congressional allies to agree on a spending bill. Proposed construction, such as a West Wing ballroom and a Miami skyscraper for a presidential library, are widely ridiculed. Gasoline prices appear to be nearing $5 per gallon, consumer confidence is plummeting, and the combined U.S.-Israeli military action against Iran continues to be highly disfavored.

Regarding state legislative positions, Democrats have gained 30 seats over the past 15 months, whereas Republicans have secured none.

Nevertheless, Democrats could still fail to meet their supporters’ high expectations as the November elections approach. A “Blue Wave” appears likely, but this isn’t due to the party’s own actions. Instead, the systemic issues that plagued Democrats in 2024 persist. Their choice last year to postpone an internal review of Kamala Harris’ defeat by Trump highlights the Democrats’ ongoing reluctance to confront their challenges directly.

Mandela Barnes, a former Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor aiming for the state’s highest office, states, “Our party isn’t exactly popular. Voters aren’t enthusiastic about supporting someone simply because they’re a Democrat. We need to be honest with ourselves.”

Barnes is among many Democrats grappling with this challenging political landscape. While voters disapprove of the current leadership, they are not particularly enthusiastic about the opposition. Barnes remarked to me about the national sentiment, “I don’t believe you’re exaggerating it. It feels insurmountable.”

Similar to many within his party, Barnes observes that voters are currently driven more by opposition than by support. “It’s about who will step forward as a champion. People currently feel disempowered. They feel their opinions are disregarded.”

This underlying tension worries Democratic strategists: Republicans, who control the House, Senate, and White House, are performing poorly in polls, yet simply being a non-Republican may not be sufficient to defeat them. Regarding party affiliation, surveys indicate that “none-of-the-above” represents the largest group.

The reality is even more concerning. Despite Trump’s plummeting poll numbers, the proportion of Democrats in the overall population continues to decline. In Florida, where party registration is required, Republicans now number 5.5 million compared to 4 million Democrats. This marks a significant shift from 2016, when Republicans had 4.6 million registered voters and Democrats had 4.9 million—and Trump won the state in both elections.

While Nate Silver’s polling data suggests a generic Democratic candidate performs approximately 5 points better than their Republican counterpart, this is far from a guaranteed victory, especially considering the extent of gerrymandering in current House districts. Indeed, the highly respected Cook Political Report identifies only 17 House races this year as genuinely competitive.

To contextualize that 5-point advantage, it was closer to 7 points at this same point in 2018, a year when Democrats gained 41 House seats. Four years prior, Democrats held a lead of just over 1 point and subsequently lost nine House seats. In 2010, when Democrats lost 63 House seats, they were trailing by only 2 points.

Democrats require a net gain of only three seats to control the House, but four seats for the Senate. The possibility of Democrats completely flipping Congress might depend on the candidates they select in states such as Maine, Michigan, and Iowa.

Stated differently: Democrats are still poised for a favorable election year, yet in retrospect, they might be seen as having missed an opportunity for a decisive victory. Large-scale street protests indicate momentum but offer no guarantees, particularly when a multitude of complex issues—including environmental rights, reproductive freedoms, effective governance, foreign policy, LGBTQ+ rights, and economic instability—are all conflated on protest signs.

The fundamental issue is that the party has lacked a clear identity since the Barack Obama era. For over a decade, nothing has truly unified the Democrats’ identity, as connections between corporate liberals and grassroots progressives have become unsustainable. Ideological, generational, and geographical divisions have intensified to such an extent that Axios reported what many Democrats have privately discussed for over a year regarding their next presidential candidate: it must be “a straight, white, Christian man.”

More pressing, however, are this year’s midterm elections, which traditionally penalize the party holding the presidency. This is why Barnes, currently engaged in a close Democratic primary for Wisconsin’s open gubernatorial race, also finds an advantage in the fact that the leading Republican candidate is Rep. Tom Tiffany, who will need to campaign on his legislative history. “Running for office as a member of Congress is a difficult proposition given the current struggles people are facing.”

Nevertheless, a party cannot achieve widespread electoral success nationwide without adequate funding. While Democrats possess a genuine fundraising edge in competitive contests, incumbency offers distinct advantages, primarily the ability to quickly distribute favors. Last year, the Republican campaign network surpassed its Democratic counterparts in fundraising. Furthermore, Trump continues to be an instinctive political force capable of mobilizing millions.

As Democrats approach election season, the key question is whether Trump’s influential pull will draw voters back to his side this autumn or push them into the Democrats’ embrace. The latter strategy is how Joe Biden secured the 2020 nomination, by leveraging the perceived threats of Trumpism to unify his party. This year’s data suggests a favorable climate for Democrats, reminiscent of 2006, when voters shifted 31 House seats and Nancy Pelosi became the first female Speaker. However, it’s also valuable to compare their current position to the GOP’s in 2022, when Republicans held a generic polling lead of just under 4 points; that year’s “Red Wave” proved illusory, with Republicans gaining only nine House seats and losing one in the Senate.

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