With the passing of the former Prime Minister, a champion of multiparty democracy, and a long-standing opposition figure, Kenya has lost its most influential personality of the previous generation. Odinga, who was incarcerated for his efforts in advocating for political reform, played a crucial part in replacing a colonial-era framework with the nation’s current constitution, which established clearer limitations on presidential authority. He vied for the presidency five times without success, yet in the 2022 election, he secured a majority of votes in all but two regions, showcasing his capacity to cultivate a significant following beyond his regional and Luo ethnic origins.
Odinga was not merely a historical figure. His ability to maintain the allegiance of one of Kenya’s largest voting blocs; to unite the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), a centrist-left party; and to orchestrate protests—leveraging them to secure concessions from the government—ensured his sustained position as a central political actor.
Odinga’s recent alliance with President William Ruto had strengthened Kenya’s political stability at junctures when a return to past political violence seemed plausible, and his death now introduces an element of unpredictability. The ODM commands the second-largest number of seats in Kenya’s parliament, and Odinga was the primary leader who determined most of the party’s stances on legislative matters. Ruto required Odinga’s influence over these votes to advance his own agenda. Ruto responded to Odinga’s demise by declaring a seven-day period of “mourning and deep reflection” in recognition of “Odinga’s extraordinary contribution to our nation.”
Odinga’s passing leaves a substantial political void. He had led the ODM since its establishment in 2005 and had served as the party’s presidential candidate in every general election it contested. However, senior members of the ODM opposed his alliance with Ruto—even while joining his broad-based Cabinet—and continued to criticize the President despite the coalition. Many party leaders openly argued that this alliance provided the ODM a unique chance to attract some of Ruto’s supporters, yet Odinga successfully preserved the coalition.
Younger ODM members who assisted in organizing last year’s anti-government demonstrations—some of the most extensive since democracy was reinstated in the 1990s—condemned Odinga’s cooperation with Ruto as an act of political betrayal. These youth protestors oppose the Ruto government over its economic policies, often blatant government corruption, and its authoritarian tendencies.
Odinga’s death has instigated intense internal debate within the ODM regarding if, when, and how the party might withdraw its support from Ruto prior to Kenya’s 2027 presidential election. On October 16, the party selected Odinga’s 82-year-old brother as its interim leader, but no single individual within the ODM appears capable of uniting its members around a coherent legislative and political strategy.
It is not solely the ODM’s future path that remains unclear. Aspiring Presidents across the country understand that success in the 2027 election will depend on securing Odinga’s former support base. Ruto had hoped that Odinga’s endorsement for another five-year term would help secure his re-election in 2027, and opposition leaders had attempted to draw Odinga into their factions. Unfortunately for all, the absence of a unifying figure within the ODM could simply lead to the fragmentation of Odinga’s support as a bitter internal leadership struggle divides the party into various factions.
The positive news for Kenya is that, at least in the immediate future, the perilous political unrest witnessed in the past remains improbable. Following a surge of grief in Odinga’s home region, tensions will be elevated, and four fatalities occurred last week in Nairobi after security forces discharged shots and teargas to disperse crowds mourning Odinga. Nevertheless, in a country where police brutality remains a contentious political issue, Ruto’s imperative to keep the ODM within the governing coalition for as long as possible mitigates the threat of widespread confrontations between police and mourners.
Still, Kenya’s longer-term political outlook has become considerably more ambiguous, as the competition to win over Odinga’s supporters is set to intensify in the coming months. With numerous governments today led by strongmen—or those aspiring to be strongmen—in Africa and beyond, Odinga’s passing represents a monumental loss.
