TLDR
- The price of BTC maintains a multi-year ascending channel, with a projected target of $210,000 in 2026.
- The daily price is compressed between $84,000 and $90,000, indicating an upcoming expansion in volatility.
- Long-term holders have paused selling, easing the supply pressure near the current levels.
- A breakout above $90,000 opens up the possibility of reaching $100,000 and above, while a drop below $87,000 risks a decline to $84,000.
Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase after a volatile 2025. Technical and on-chain data are shaping expectations for 2026. Analysts point out a resilient long-term structure, short-term range compression, and a notable change in the behavior of holders. Together, these signals suggest a market that is stabilizing at support levels while still aiming for ambitious cycle targets in the next year.
Bitcoin Price Holds Long-Term Channel, $210K Target Flagged
According to analyst Crypto GEMs, the weekly Bitcoin price chart on MEXC shows a clearly defined ascending channel that extends from 2024 to mid-2026. The structure features three precise touches on the lower trendline, strengthening its technical credibility. Each bounce has occurred at significantly higher price levels, reflecting a continuous bullish trend.
will reach around $210,000 in 2026
Enjoy
— Crypto GEMs
(@cryptogems555)
The current pullback from the $108,000 level has brought the price back towards the lower boundary near $87,000. This movement is similar to previous mid-cycle corrections within the same channel. Importantly, the price remains above the structural support, suggesting that the overall uptrend remains intact rather than being broken.
The analyst highlighted a projected upper extension of the channel near $211,857 in 2026. Historically, Bitcoin cycle peaks have coincided with channel breakouts or tests of the upper rail. Based on the symmetry of previous movements, a move towards the $150,000 – $180,000 region could precede a final upward push. However, a sustained drop below $80,000 would invalidate this bullish scenario.
Daily Bitcoin Price Range Tightens Below $90K Resistance
Meanwhile, analyst Ted reported that the daily BTC/USD chart on Binance shows continued consolidation. Since April 2025, the Bitcoin price has struggled to regain the $100,000 level. Repeated attempts between $90,000 and $108,000 have created a strong resistance zone.
On the downside, support has remained stable between $84,000 and $87,000. The price is currently fluctuating near the lower end of this range. Ted notes that the decreasing year-end liquidity has contributed to low volatility and market indecision.
is still trapped in the $87,000 – $90,000 range.
Until Bitcoin regains the $90,000 level, the upside potential is limited.
If BTC loses the $87,000 level, it is very likely to revisit the $84,000 – $85,000 level.
— Ted (@TedPillows)
This compression in the price range often precedes a significant directional movement. A daily close above $90,000 would likely open up the possibility of reaching six-figure price levels. Conversely, if the price drops below $87,000, it could trigger a stop-loss sweep towards $84,000 before stabilizing. Until a clear direction is established, range-based trading strategies will continue to dominate short-term market positioning.
Long-Term Holders Pause Selling, Easing Downside Risk
In addition, analyst Solid pointed out a significant change in the behavior of long-term holders using Checkonchain data. The 30-day net position change for long-term holders shows that selling pressure reached its peak during the mid-2025 rally. This distribution phase coincided with the local high of $108,000.
Since late November, this metric has flattened near zero. This is the first sustained reduction in selling since July 2025. The stabilization of the price around $87,000 has occurred along with this change, suggesting that the supply pressure has eased.
For the first time since July, long-term holders have stopped selling
— Solid 堅固 ⬡ (@SolidTradesz)
Historically, a halt in long-term distribution often follows corrective phases rather than market tops. Reduced selling tightens the available supply, which can amplify the upward movement when demand returns. Although short-term momentum remains weak, this supply situation supports a positive outlook for 2026. A shift towards net accumulation would further strengthen this view.
The Bitcoin price is trading within a narrow range while maintaining a resilient macro structure. Analysts agree that a clear direction is likely to be determined in early 2026. Until then, the market remains balanced between the risk of further consolidation and the long-term potential for an upward movement.
