Tesla (TSLA) Stock: Robotaxi Outlook Sparks Bullish Calls From BofA and Morgan Stanley

TLDR

• Tesla recorded 358,000 vehicle deliveries for the first quarter of 2026, marking a 6% increase compared to the previous year, though falling slightly short of the 365,000-unit market consensus.
• Shares of TSLA have retreated 29% from their peak, pressured by cooling electric vehicle demand, the expiration of tax incentives, and heightened market competition.
• Bank of America has resumed coverage of the stock with a $460 price target, highlighting the scalability and cost efficiency of Tesla’s vision-based robotaxi strategy.
• Projections from Morgan Stanley place Tesla’s cost-per-mile at $0.81, significantly lower than the $1.43 seen with Waymo and the $1.71 average for standard rideshare services.
• The Energy Storage division underperformed significantly, deploying 8.8 GWh against an anticipated 14.4 GWh, representing a 40% deficit.

(SeaPRwire) –   Tesla reported 358,000 vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. While this represents a 6% year-over-year growth, it failed to meet the Wall Street expectation of 365,000. This marks the second quarter in a row that delivery figures have trailed analyst projections.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

The company’s EV operations are facing significant headwinds, including the sunsetting of federal tax credits, increased competition, and the impact of CEO Elon Musk’s political visibility on consumer demand. After losing its position as the world’s leading EV manufacturer in 2025, Tesla saw declines across its delivery, revenue, and earnings metrics.

Although TSLA stock is trading 29% below its all-time high, two major financial institutions have issued bullish outlooks, shifting the focus toward future prospects rather than recent performance.

In March, Bank of America analyst Alexander Perry reinstated coverage with a $460 price target, suggesting a potential 33% upside from the $345 share price. This target aligns with the median estimate among the 56 analysts tracked by The Wall Street Journal.

Perry’s thesis centers on autonomous driving technology. While Tesla currently operates robotaxi services in only two U.S. markets—Austin and San Francisco—compared to Waymo’s presence in 11, Perry believes Tesla’s camera-only system provides a distinct competitive edge.

Unlike most rivals who utilize a sensor suite of lidar, radar, and cameras, Tesla relies exclusively on cameras. While this presents a greater technical challenge, it is substantially more cost-effective, eliminating the need for expensive hardware or the pre-mapping of cities via lidar.

“Tesla’s camera-only approach is technically harder but much cheaper and leverages a consumer-fleet data engine. Tesla’s strategy should allow it to scale more profitably compared to robotaxi competitors,” Perry said.

Cost Advantage Could Be Decisive

Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco supports this perspective, estimating Tesla’s cost-per-mile at $0.81, which undercuts Waymo’s $1.43 and traditional rideshare costs of $1.71. He anticipates further cost reductions as Cybercab production ramps up.

Percoco also suggests that the robotaxi expansion will create a virtuous cycle: increased ride volume will provide more real-world data to refine Tesla’s AI, which in turn enhances the Full Self-Driving (FSD) software for retail customers, ultimately boosting core vehicle sales.

Musk has indicated that the autonomous network could reach dozens of major cities, covering 25% to 50% of the U.S. by the end of the year. Morgan Stanley forecasts that Tesla will secure 25% of the annual U.S. autonomous driving market by 2032, trailing Waymo’s projected 34% share.

Energy Storage Was the Real Miss

Beyond vehicle deliveries, Tesla’s Energy Storage unit struggled, with Megapack deployments reaching only 8.8 GWh—a 40% miss against the 14.4 GWh consensus. This represents the first year-over-year drop in storage deployments since 2022.

While analysts generally view this as an isolated incident attributed to the timing of large utility contracts, it remains a key metric to monitor.

Morgan Stanley has revised its 2026 full-year delivery estimate to 1.60 million vehicles, which would still constitute a 2.2% year-over-year decrease. The firm’s long-term outlook anticipates mid-teens volume growth through 2030, supported by the introduction of new models, including a potential “Model YL” and a refreshed Cybertruck.