TLDR

  • Following a significant drop in Bitcoin prices, Strategy Inc. anticipates a loss in the fourth quarter of 2025.
  • In 2025, MSTR shares declined by 48%, wiping out most of the gains made earlier in the year.
  • The 24% decrease in Bitcoin led to fair – value accounting losses on Strategy’s balance sheet.
  • During the period of increased market volatility in December, the company sold more shares to enhance its liquidity.
  • Strategy’s enterprise value is now approaching the market value of its Bitcoin holdings.

After a 24% drop in Bitcoin and a 48% fall in [missing content], Strategy Inc. expects a fourth – quarter 2025 loss. These combined declines have eliminated a large portion of the earlier annual gains, affected investor confidence, and triggered mandatory fair – value accounting adjustments that show unrealized losses on Bitcoin holdings in its quarterly results.

MSTR shares fall about 48% in 2025, cutting the premium once tied to Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury model

In 2025, MSTR stock dropped nearly 48%, getting rid of most of the gains from earlier in the year. Currently, the company’s shares are trading at one – quarter of their November 2024 peak, which represents a decline of around 70% from their highest point.

This correction has significantly reduced the premium that investors once placed on the company’s Bitcoin – heavy treasury approach. In December, Strategy sold more shares to strengthen its cash reserves as market volatility increased.

Previously, Strategy benefited from investor demand for crypto – related exposure through equities. However, the decline in [missing content] and MSTR shares has challenged this trend, and the downturn has affected the firm’s overall enterprise value.

Q4 2025 losses emerge as Bitcoin’s 24% drop triggers fair – value accounting impacts on earnings

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Bitcoin dropped approximately 24% and ended the year near $87,600. This price is just above the lower end of Strategy’s trading band, as the firm had set a range of $85,000 to $110,000 for Bitcoin performance in Q4.

Since adopting fair – value accounting, the company has to report paper losses due to the decline in Bitcoin’s price. This change directly impacts how Strategy presents its earnings. As a result, the Q4 financial results are likely to show this decline.

Earlier in the year, Strategy projected that its full – year operating results could range from a $7 billion loss to a $9.5 billion profit. This wide range was entirely dependent on Bitcoin’s market price at the end of the year. Now, the final figures are more likely to be on the loss side.

Enterprise value nears Bitcoin holdings as volatility tests confidence in corporate BTC balance sheets

Strategy’s enterprise value is now getting closer to the market value of its Bitcoin holdings. This convergence has reduced the premium that was once placed on its Bitcoin – proxy model. Now, investors evaluate the firm more in line with the value of the assets it holds.

This change has raised questions about [missing content] strategies during periods of falling prices. Analyst comments have focused on market behavior and investor reactions. Peter Schiff pointed out that there is ongoing pressure on Strategy’s outlook for 2026.

Despite these difficulties, Strategy continued to increase its Bitcoin position. Earlier this week, it bought around $109 million worth of Bitcoin. This move is consistent with its long – standing approach, even though there have been short – term drops in valuation.

Institutional exposure to Bitcoin remains active, as ETFs are still attracting capital. The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF was among the best – performing funds in 2025. Strategy remains committed to its Bitcoin thesis, regardless of short – term price fluctuations.