Could a “Super El Niño” Develop in 2026? Scientists Weigh In

(SeaPRwire) –   According to climate scientists, a rare and powerful El Niño event, often called a “Super El Niño,” may develop in the near future.

These intense El Niño events are infrequent, with only five occurring since 1950; the most recent was from 2015 to 2016. While scientists are not yet certain one will form this year, the probability is growing. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasted on April 9 a 61% chance of an El Niño developing, with a 25% chance it could be strong.

This forecast follows a period of record-breaking weather. The first three months of this year marked the driest such period on record for the United States, while Europe saw its second-warmest March. The Copernicus Climate Change Service also confirmed that March had the second-highest global sea surface temperatures ever recorded, adding to evidence that El Niño conditions could emerge later this year.

Here is an explanation of “Super El Niños” and their potential effects on global weather.

What does a super El Niño mean?

El Niño and La Niña describe the warm and cool phases, respectively, of a recurring climate cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño involves unusually warm ocean temperatures, while La Niña features unusually cool temperatures. These events typically happen every two to seven years and can persist from nine months to several years.

A strong El Niño, informally termed a “super El Niño,” is identified when average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific increase by at least 2°C.

“​​El Niño occurs when warm water that’s built up in the West Pacific sloshes to the east and replaces that normally cold water with warmer water. And a super El Niño condition is when that warmer water basically erases the cold tongue,” explains Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Albany. “So the East Pacific in November and December could be 2-3°C above normal, whereas a more moderate or weaker El Niño event might only be half a degree above normal.”

What impact will a super El Niño have?

The consequences of El Niño vary globally, notes Roundy. “Places that don’t normally get very much rain can get a lot of rain, and places that are normally wet end up being drier than normal.”

During a strong El Niño year, the Atlantic hurricane season is often quieter, but hurricane activity may increase in the Central Pacific. South Asia’s summer monsoon might be weaker, and drought conditions could affect parts of the Amazon and Australia in the fall and winter. In the United States, southern regions may experience more rainfall and cooler weather, while northern areas could see warmer-than-average temperatures.

An El Niño also threatens food security alongside other worldwide crises, such as spikes in fuel and fertilizer prices linked to the war in Iran.

“We’ve become a lot better at producing food in less ideal situations, and we’re better at transporting food around, but there is risk of crop failures in some parts of the world in response to redistribution of rainfall, because the El Niño tends to result in it raining less in places that are normally wet,’ says Roundy.

When was the last super El Niño? And how is climate change impacting El Niños?

The connection between El Niño events and climate change is still under investigation by scientists. Some studies suggest that fossil fuel combustion, leading to a warmer atmosphere and oceans, could be intensifying El Niños, though not all experts concur.

“There are signs that it seems like the El Niños of our future are going to be different because of the warming climate,” states Ian Faloona, a micrometeorologist at the University of California, Davis. “It’s hard to forecast even now in the current climate, and then forecasting it in a warmer climate is even more tricky.”

Powerful El Niños can disrupt weather patterns for years. A study from December 2025 discovered that a super El Niño can initiate “climate regime shifts”—abrupt, lasting changes in the climate system that endanger ecosystems and human societies; a warming world would likely make these shifts more common. The research indicated that after the 2015-16 super El Niño, the Gulf of Mexico entered a new, sustained warm state that may have fueled stronger hurricanes along the Gulf Coast in subsequent years.

The last decade has already been the hottest on record. El Niño events release ocean-stored heat into the atmosphere, elevating global average surface temperatures. A strong El Niño, combined with background warming from climate change, could result in record-breaking warm years in 2026 or 2027.

“There’s a long term, upward trend in temperature that’s caused by climate change. And then there’s the natural fluctuation of El Niño superimposed on that,” Roundy says. A March study that filtered out short-term natural temperature variations from factors like El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycles concluded that the rate of global warming has almost doubled since 2015.

Faloona adds that a strong El Niño layered onto already rising global temperatures could break records in the near future: “If we have another El Nino, this means the global temperatures for 2026 or 2027 primarily, are likely to be much, much higher than ever before.”