(BERLIN) — Chancellor Olaf Scholz failed a confidence vote in the German Bundestag on Monday, triggering an early election in February for the EU’s largest economy.
In the 733-seat Bundestag, Scholz received 207 votes in his favor, 394 against, with 116 abstentions. This fell significantly short of the required 367 votes for a majority.
Scholz leads a minority government following the collapse of his three-party coalition on November 6th after the dismissal of his finance minister amidst disagreements over economic revitalization. Several major parties subsequently agreed to hold parliamentary elections on February 23rd, seven months ahead of schedule.
The confidence vote was necessary because German post-war constitutional rules prevent the Bundestag from self-dissolution. President Frank-Walter Steinmeier must now decide whether to dissolve parliament and call for elections.
Steinmeier has a 21-day timeframe for this decision, and given the election timeline, it’s anticipated to occur after Christmas. Following parliamentary dissolution, elections must be held within 60 days.
The election campaign is already underway, evident in Monday’s three-hour parliamentary debate.
What did the contenders say?
Scholz, a Social Democrat, argued the election will decide whether Germany will invest in its future, maintain confidence, or risk its cohesion and prosperity through delayed investments.
Scholz’s platform includes modernizing Germany’s debt rules, raising the minimum wage, and reducing VAT on food.
Center-right challenger Friedrich Merz countered that Scholz is leaving Germany in a major postwar economic crisis, criticizing his approach to debt and lack of focus on economic competitiveness.
“You’re standing here and saying, business as usual, let’s run up debt at the expense of the younger generation, let’s spend money and … the word ‘competitiveness’ of the German economy didn’t come up once in the speech you gave today,” Merz said.
Scholz affirmed Germany’s role as Ukraine’s largest military supplier in Europe but reiterated his refusal to provide Taurus cruise missiles or deploy German troops, prioritizing Germany’s security.
Merz, who supports sending the missiles, dismissed Scholz’s comments on war and peace, but emphasized shared desire amongst political rivals to end the Ukraine conflict swiftly.
What are their chances?
Polls indicate Scholz’s party lags behind Merz’s Union bloc. Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck of the Greens is also vying for the chancellorship, although his party trails further behind.
The Alternative for Germany, polling strongly, nominated Alice Weidel, but faces insurmountable obstacles due to other parties’ refusal to cooperate.
Germany’s electoral system typically results in coalition governments, and current polls suggest no single party will achieve a majority. Post-election coalition negotiations are anticipated.
Confidence votes are unusual in Germany, occurring only six times in its postwar history. This was the sixth such instance.
The last confidence vote was in 2005, when Gerhard Schröder triggered an early election, narrowly won by Angela Merkel.
