ISRAEL-PALESTINIAN-CONFLICT-HOSTAGES-PROTEST

After 467 days, a ceasefire and hostage release agreement between Israel and Hamas brought relief to millions of Israelis. The deal, beginning Sunday, will see the release of 33 Israeli hostages from Gaza over 42 days. Further releases are contingent on a permanent ceasefire in the second phase. This marked the first glimmer of hope since a brief truce ended in December 2023, leaving many hostages unaccounted for since the October 7th conflict.

However, the initial reaction in Israel was muted. Two hours after the announcement, volunteers at Hostage Square in Tel Aviv expressed relief mixed with apprehension. Arnon Cohen, a resident of a kibbutz near Gaza that was attacked, described the feelings as a blend of joy and sorrow.

Cohen and his friends voiced a combination of relief, anticipation, fear, exhaustion, and uncertainty. The fate of their loved ones remained unknown, with questions lingering about the number of casualties and the likelihood of the second phase’s success.

One individual who seemingly benefited is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Following Hamas’s October 7th attack, resulting in 1,200 deaths and 250 kidnappings, Netanyahu’s popularity plummeted. However, by April 2024, his approval ratings rebounded as Israel engaged in military actions against Iran and Hezbollah, bolstering the nation’s sense of strength.

Furthermore, Netanyahu, for a second time in his career, navigated a relationship with a Democratic U.S. President perceived by some Israelis as insufficiently supportive, ultimately benefiting from the subsequent election of a more pro-Israel candidate, who enjoyed high approval ratings in Israeli surveys.

Yet, public anger persisted over the hostages. Failed negotiation attempts fueled blame towards Netanyahu, leading to widespread protests. Images of the missing hostages and “Bring Them Home Now!” slogans became commonplace, transforming into a national plea and a political critique.

While the agreement should be a political win, Netanyahu’s response was ambivalent. The Wednesday announcement differed from a previous deal proposed by the Biden administration, which Netanyahu actively avoided with the help of Hamas. He initially denied agreements, hedged on the deal’s finality, accused Hamas of violating terms, delayed a government vote, then finally consented to the deal.

Netanyahu’s predicament stems from conflicting pressures. He’s been caught between public demands for hostage release and the demands of his coalition partners.

These partners, from the Religious Zionist and Jewish Power parties, prioritized preventing the war’s end to maintain their agenda of conquering Gaza and expanding settlements, making a resolution harder to achieve. With the West Bank nearing annexation and Israel holding sovereign territory in Syria, the implications are significant.

Netanyahu prioritized retaining his coalition partners, ignoring pleas for his loved ones’ release, reflecting his alignment with their expansionist goals and his role in their political ascent.

Donald Trump’s apparent support for a ceasefire exerted added pressure on Netanyahu.

Netanyahu may see a surge in popularity with the hostages’ return, but the second phase, aiming for a permanent end to the conflict, faces opposition from his coalition partners, potentially jeopardizing his government.

Netanyahu’s future remains uncertain, with the deal’s precarious nature and phase-by-phase structure. However, he might pursue the agreement hoping for further support, potentially including a Saudi normalization deal, settlement annexations, or more aggressive action against Iran from Trump’s administration.

This scenario could allow Netanyahu to improve public approval for returning hostages, while solidifying his support base and maintaining power until the next election in 2026.

Ultimately, Netanyahu’s actions suggest prioritizing self-preservation over the plight of the hostages and victims.