Hidden deep within the Zagros Mountains of central Iran, a network of fortified tunnels near Natanz housed centrifuges spinning at incredible speeds. These machines, essential to Iran’s nuclear activities, were previously thought to be impervious to attack. However, Israeli warplanes recently breached Iranian airspace and targeted multiple nuclear sites, including these underground facilities.
While the extent of the damage is still unclear, satellite images and preliminary assessments by the IAEA suggest that the strikes on the Natanz facility were particularly effective, disabling the electricity supply to the underground area.
These Israeli actions have shattered the long-standing nuclear equilibrium in the Middle East, prompting a critical question: What if Iran concludes that a nuclear weapon is its only true safeguard?
For over a decade, Iran has remained just short of achieving nuclear weaponization. However, this spring, it abandoned that policy. In May, the IAEA reported that Iran possessed approximately 120 kg of uranium enriched to 60%—close to the 90% needed for weapons—enough to potentially build 22 bombs within five months if enrichment continued. Simultaneously, Iran began constructing a third enrichment hall in addition to the two already operational. U.S. officials considered this a provocation, while Israel regarded it as a justification for war.
The military strikes launched by Israel on June 13 were precise and carefully planned. Israeli officials characterized them as a preemptive measure to disable Iran’s nuclear weapons capability by targeting key enrichment sites, nuclear scientists, and military figures.
Although the strikes appear to have disrupted Iran’s enrichment activities, the country still possesses scientific knowledge and stored materials, giving it a greater incentive to conceal its program more effectively. Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute stated, “If Iran survives the conflict, they might determine that nuclear weapons are the only path to deterrence.”
Iran might attempt a rapid development of a nuclear weapon at one of its remaining locations. One such site, Fordo, is buried deep within mountains near Qom, making it accessible only to the U.S.’s most powerful bunker-buster bomb, the 30,000-lb. GBU-57.
This threat highlights the failure of diplomatic efforts to control Iran’s nuclear program. Richard Nephew, formerly involved in Iran sanctions during the Obama Administration, noted that “Reaching a deal now is significantly more challenging than before.” However, Matt Kroenig of the Atlantic Council offers a more optimistic perspective: “We were on the brink of Iran becoming a nuclear power, but it seems that threat has now been delayed.”
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