President Trump cut short his attendance at a G-7 meeting in Kananaskis, Canada, on June 16, citing escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. He expressed a preference for being better informed than relying solely on phone calls. This departure from his usual style indicated the seriousness of the situation and a rare admission of needing more information to navigate the volatile circumstances.
The stakes are considerable for the U.S. If cornered by Israel’s surprisingly effective strikes, Iran might use its proxy terrorist groups against American interests both regionally and globally. The budding alliance between Israel and Arab nations is at risk as the conflict could escalate further. More broadly, the war’s outcome could determine whether the U.S. deploys troops to the Middle East for another extended period, diverting resources from efforts to counter China’s expansion in the Pacific.
Conversely, an Israeli victory over Iran could foster greater Arab-Israeli cooperation, weaken Iran’s regional militias, and undermine China’s strategy of supporting Iran as a counterbalance to the U.S. “You’ve got this axis with Beijing at the core,” according to Matthew Pottinger, former Deputy National Security Adviser during Trump’s first term.
The U.S. has the potential to sway the situation, but Trump faces limitations in managing the conflict. It has been four years since the controversial withdrawal from Afghanistan. Trump’s campaign centered on avoiding new wars, and his own supporters strongly oppose further involvement.
Trump has already increased the U.S. military presence near Israel and Iran, deploying an additional guided-missile destroyer off the coast of Israel and redirecting the U.S.S. Nimitz carrier strike group from the Pacific towards the Arabian Sea.
Iran’s location is strategically crucial, with nearly a third of global crude-oil production passing through the Strait of Hormuz, within 30 miles of its coast. Tanker ships have been advised to navigate closer to Oman’s coast on the Strait’s western side. Amid heightened military activity, maritime alerts warn vessels of potential “electronic interference” disrupting navigation systems.
Trump views a direct Iranian attack on the U.S. as a trigger for military action. Iran has been implicated in an assassination attempt against Trump and a plot to kill an Iranian-American journalist in Brooklyn. “The fact that they have been open in these threats tells me they don’t believe they are facing credible retaliatory risk from the United States,” Pottinger says. “The Israeli strikes might inject some reality into their calculus. But Iranians have been known to miscalculate on many occasions.”
Following his return to Washington, Trump adopted a more aggressive tone, demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and criticizing its leaders for insufficient engagement in talks. “Why didn’t you negotiate with me two weeks ago? You could have done fine. You would have had a country,” he stated. Now, the future is uncertain for both Iran and the U.S.
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