Despite the turmoil evident in Tehran, Iran has progressively increased its influence in the region throughout the 21st century.
Lately, events had largely favored Iran. In Iraq, the U.S. ousted Saddam Hussein and subsequently withdrew, effectively transforming Iran’s most significant neighbor from a threat into a dependent. This occurred even before Iranian militias assisted Baghdad against ISIS and remained in the country. The forces Iran deployed to Syria served a dual purpose: bolstering the Assad regime and establishing a supply route to Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia operating alongside them. Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, was a crucial component of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” against Israel.
For over eight decades, opposition to Israel had been a defining characteristic of the Middle East.
This remains true for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Eliminating the Jewish state from “Islamic lands” is central to the ideology of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which positions Iran as a leader within the Muslim world. While America is considered the Great Satan, Israel is the primary target for Iran’s proxies in Baghdad, Lebanon, and Yemen. Consequently, on the eve of Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas leaders believed that their attack on Israeli defenses in Gaza, would trigger wider support.
However, the axis of resistance offered minimal resistance. Hezbollah launched only a few missiles daily at Israel during its most vulnerable period. Iran’s leaders, observing an opponent supported by U.S. resources and a nuclear arsenal, prioritized their own survival and nuclear program. As Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini stated, “The preservation of the system is the highest priority.” While solidarity with the Palestinians was valued, self-interest took precedence.
The issue for both Iran and the Palestinian cause is that the rest of the Middle East had reached a similar conclusion. While Iran expanded its military influence under the guise of supporting the Palestinians, the wealthy Gulf kingdoms were forging alliances with Israel.
In reality, most of the Arab world had come to terms with Israel in some way. Egypt and Jordan, which border Israel, signed peace treaties after repeated military defeats. The Gulf states aligned with Israel largely due to their shared animosity towards Iran. As predominantly Sunni states, these kingdoms view Iran not only as radical but also as the leader of the Shi‘ite minority, making it a rival. Saudi Arabia, as the custodian of Islam’s holy sites, also vies for leadership of the Muslim world.
As autocratic states, the Gulf kingdoms were also eager customers of Israel’s tech sector, which had evolved from its military. Surveillance technologies, particularly those used on millions of Palestinians, spawned companies like NSO Group, which quickly found clients among Arab regimes. The United Arab Emirates was the first to establish diplomatic ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords, a significant achievement of the Trump Administration. Three other Arab states followed suit, and the Saudis continue to indicate their intention to do the same once the situation in Gaza allows.
However, the conflict in Gaza continues, a war Israel did not anticipate and lacks a clear path to victory. The core issue—the future of the Palestinian people—remains unresolved. In contrast, the conflict with Iran is one Israel has been planning for years. The playbook of deception and precision strikes, used to cripple Hezbollah in September, freed Israelis from the threat of the militia’s missiles and exposed Iran to the Israeli offensive that began June 13.
That day, a shepherd filmed an Israeli C-130 flying low over Syria. The Assad family had already fled the country, unable to control rebels without Hezbollah’s help. Iran sent a plane to evacuate its generals to Tehran, where the question is how Israel will define victory. Regime change in Iraq proved problematic. The stated goal of destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities appears .
That decision . This choice could drastically reshape the region. By engaging with Israel and the Gulf states, the U.S. President has outlined a new, more transactional reality. In 1945, the prospect of an Israeli state led to an Arab boycott in support of the Palestinians. Eighty years later, an Arab nation can condemn the deaths in Gaza while simultaneously intercepting Iranian missiles aimed at Tel Aviv, joining Israeli warplanes in the skies above a new Middle East.
