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The last time Nebraskans voted for a Senator who wasn’t a Republican, George W. Bush was an President leading a deeply GOP. That’s why it’s surprising that Republicans are now working hard to ensure Republican Sen. Deb Fischer wins a third term and Democrats are cautiously optimistic that this deep-red state might be open to supporting a union leader running as an independent.
National Republicans have spent roughly half a million dollars on advertising in the last month of the campaign. An outside group linked to one of the state’s wealthiest families is adding another $2 million to that fund to help Fischer in her tight race against newcomer Dan Osborn. Meanwhile, national Democrats are publicly denying involvement but are privately noting
—though limited in number—suggesting Nebraska might be closer than expected given its 2-to-1 Republican voter registration advantage. Late last month, the most respected political analyst changed its assessment of the race from a GOP sure thing to a slightly more even contest. And a New York Times/Siena College poll of three other Senate races that have attracted Democratic attention on Thursday indicated that Nebraska might be the last chance for the party to have any influence on the Senate.
Simply put, Nebraska’s Senate race is shaping up to be this election cycle’s unexpected surprise that neither side saw coming.
“This was not on my BINGO card,” says one Democratic strategist working on other Senate races.
A Republican strategist with extensive experience in Senate politics adds, “If Deb Fischer is in trouble, then [Senators] Sherrod Brown, Jon Tester, and Bob Casey are done for in this anti-incumbent year.”
Democrats, facing an incredibly challenging Senate map this year, are well aware of the situation in Nebraska. was the most recent Democrat to win a Senate race in the state, but that was in 2006. Other Democrats like , , and were previously elected by Nebraskans to represent them in the Senate, but those days are long gone. Democrats this year didn’t even bother nominating a candidate, assuming their efforts were better spent defending incumbents in states like Ohio, Montana, Pennsylvania, and Nevada.
Nebraska, for good reason, was not a top priority for strategists in either party. Democrats expected Fischer to easily win the race, as she did in 2018 by 19 points. President Donald Trump carried the state by the same margin two years later. It was, frankly, a bad investment for Democrats. In fact, unseating incumbent Republicans in GOP-leaning and seemed like better targets than anything in the vast sea of Republican voters that spans the center of the country.
And yet, with less than a month before Election Day, the GOP is sending reinforcements to Omaha airwaves to protect Fischer, a low-key lawmaker with prominent roles on the Armed Services and Appropriations committees. A cattle rancher before entering politics, Fischer often avoids the spotlight to focus on local issues important to her constituents, such as agricultural subsidies and rural internet access. Known for her mainstream views, no Republicans have seriously challenged her in this race. This is why has become a late concern for the GOP, with control of the Senate hanging in the balance. A competitive race in Nebraska was unthinkable just six months ago.
For his part, Osborn has done his best to keep national Democrats at a distance. He has pledged not to caucus with either party, a departure from the four lawmakers currently in the chamber who align with Senate Democrats for organizational purposes. Osborn, who led a union strike in Omaha against Kellogg in 2021, has rejected ties to national liberal figures like Bernie Sanders or Chuck Schumer, and neither is actively trying to link Osborn’s success to their own brands.
“People are just thirsty for a change, on both sides of the aisle,” Osborn told The Washington Post. Fischer, meanwhile, has accused her independent opponent of being a “Trojan horse” for Democrats.
The race’s surprising competitiveness is a result of a combination of factors, including over $4 million in liberal dark-money ads. One reason for the attention is that Nebraska is one of only two states where the statewide winner of the presidential race doesn’t automatically receive all of the state’s Electoral College votes. Nebraska and Maine are the only two states to allocate some electoral votes by congressional district. This has made Nebraska’s second district a prime target for national Democrats, and there has been a surge of activity in that Omaha-area region of the state. So intense is the interest that a Midwest printing shop is even selling advertising Omaha as the region’s “Blue Dot.” (Both Joe Biden and Barack Obama won that district.)
So as this campaign enters its final stretch between a cattle rancher and a union organizer, both parties are left with a late-breaking concern about a Plains state race that no one predicted. Other campaigns are also watching with more than a little apprehension: if a latent anti-incumbent sentiment is emerging so late in Nebraska, where else might surprisingly close contests arise?
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