WASHINGTON — The “Squad,” a group of progressive lawmakers in the House, is set to be smaller next year after two members lost their primary elections. This follows an unprecedented amount of spending by special interest groups.
Reps. Cori Bush in Missouri and Jamaal Bowman in New York were defeated in their primaries this summer. This was a setback for the progressive faction, which has gained significant influence within the Democratic Party since its emergence in 2018.
This group of Black and brown lawmakers, including Reps. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez of New York, and Summer Lee of Pennsylvania, became the target of pro-Israel political action committees (PACs) like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) late last year. This happened after members criticized Israel’s response to the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas. Eight months later, AIPAC’s super political action committee, United Democracy Project, helped defeat Bush and Bowman by spending nearly $25 million combined in those races.
However, other factors also contributed to the defeats of Bush and Bowman beyond their stance on Israel. This raises questions about the extent to which voters rejected their progressive politics.
Another member of the Squad, Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, easily won her primary Tuesday against a repeat challenger. This is despite voting similarly to Bush and Bowman over the last two years and being a vocal critic of Israel.
Here’s how the three Democratic primary races played out:
Bowman — New York’s 16th District
Bowman was particularly vulnerable this election cycle due to redistricting.
The new map of his district eliminated most parts of the Bronx and included more of Westchester County’s suburbs. This significantly reduced the number of Black voters, who were crucial to Bowman’s reelection effort.
Bowman then faced a strong challenger in well-known county executive George Latimer. Latimer is a moderate with over three decades of political experience in the Westchester area.
Latimer entered the race with the support of Jewish leaders in the district who were unhappy with Bowman’s criticism of Israel. He also received substantial financial backing from AIPAC’s super PAC, which contributed about $15 million to support him.
The campaign focused heavily on Bowman’s position on Israel. Latimer criticized the incumbent for prioritizing Israel over the needs of the district. Latimer also emphasized his deep knowledge of the region to persuade voters that he would be a more effective member of Congress.
Bowman, who was seeking a third term, also faced persistent criticism for being caught sleeping on the floor of a House building while lawmakers were working on a funding bill. He claimed it was unintentional, but the incident received significant negative media coverage. He was later reprimanded by the House for his actions.
Bush — Missouri’s 1st District
The focus of campaign ads against Bush in the final weeks leading up to her August primary against St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell wasn’t her strong criticism of Israel or its leader, Benjamin Netanyahu. Instead, it centered on a vote she and five of her Squad colleagues took in late 2021.
United Democracy Project, which spent over $8.4 million opposing Bush, began airing ads in the local media market. These ads highlighted the 48-year-old’s vote against a bipartisan infrastructure bill signed into law by President Joe Biden and supported by most Democrats in Congress.
“This infrastructure bill that Joe Biden passed has been so good for working people in St. Louis,” one voter said in the 30-second ad. “Cori Bush voted against it.” Another added, “She voted against our jobs.”
Bush, Bowman, Omar, and other progressives defended their vote against the bill at the time. They argued it was necessary as they worked for the passage of a separate social and environmental package. However, their vote on the bill only became a campaign issue for Bush.
Bush’s supporters argue that the campaign to defeat her wouldn’t have been possible without Bell’s support from outside groups like UDP. UDP spent over $400,000 to air the 30-second ad, according to data from the media tracking firm AdImpact.
“If you asked any voter in any of these districts at the start of this cycle, ‘Do you know how your member of Congress voted on the infrastructure bill?’ no one would say yes,” Usamah Andrabi, a spokesman for the progressive Justice Democrats, told The Associated Press. “No one was thinking about a vote that happened three years ago for a bill that passed.”
In addition to her legislative record, Bush faced a series of public and personal scandals in recent years. These include an ongoing Justice Department investigation into her campaign spending.
Omar — Minnesota’s 5th District
Omar managed to avoid the fate of her two fellow Squad members, and she had several factors working in her favor. First, the African-born congresswoman, who has achieved many firsts since being elected to the House in 2018, had the advantage during her primary Tuesday of having previously defeated her challenger.
In 2022, former Minneapolis city councilman Don Samuels narrowly lost to Omar by two percentage points. He had the support of UDP, which spent six figures in the race. This time, the third-term lawmaker took the threat posed by Samuels and a potential influx of AIPAC money much more seriously.
“I think the congresswoman and her team understood that there needed to be a lot of work to remind people in that district about what type of leadership she brought,” Andrabi said. “And I think she exemplified that.”
Omar also raised significantly more money for the primary, with her campaign reporting raising about $6.2 million. Samuels, on the other hand, raised about $1.4 million.
“What I was hoping is that a strong ground game and an attention to the details of folks who felt left out would trump an overwhelming superiority in dollars,” Samuels said in a recent AP interview. “Clearly money matters a little more in politics than I had hoped.”
Omar’s substantial fundraising advantage, along with endorsements from Minnesota’s Democratic Party and progressive leaders like Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, helped her win by nearly 14 points.
And perhaps the most important factor in her race was that groups like AIPAC ultimately didn’t get involved, despite threatening to unseat any candidate they considered insufficiently pro-Israel.
