census form

Republican efforts to exclude undocumented individuals from congressional apportionment calculations have resumed, with four Republican state attorneys general filing a lawsuit to modify the decennial census before President Trump’s second term commenced.

President Trump immediately responded by issuing an executive order reversing a Biden administration directive, hinting at a potential administration-wide push to alter the 2030 census. This initiative could receive support from the Republican-controlled Congress, where Rep. Chuck Edwards introduced a bill to reinstate a citizenship question on the census form.

During his first term, President Trump issued orders to exclude undocumented individuals from the 2020 census data used for congressional seat and Electoral College vote allocation. A second order mandated citizenship data collection via administrative records. A Republican redistricting expert suggested that using the citizen voting-age population instead of the total population for redistricting could benefit Republicans and non-Hispanic whites.

These memos followed the Supreme Court’s rejection of President Trump’s attempt to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census, deeming the administration’s justification “contrived.”

President Biden rescinded both orders upon taking office in January 2021, before the Census Bureau released the 2020 census data.

Historian Margo Anderson noted uncertainty regarding the extent to which the Trump administration and Congress would attempt to manipulate the statistical system, suggesting other national priorities might take precedence.

The Fourteenth Amendment mandates counting “the whole number of persons in each state” for apportionment, impacting congressional seats, Electoral College votes, and the distribution of approximately $2.8 trillion in federal funds.

The lawsuit filed by the attorneys general of Kansas, Louisiana, Ohio, and West Virginia seeks to exclude undocumented and temporary residents from congressional apportionment calculations. It alleges that Ohio and West Virginia lost congressional seats and electoral votes in 2020 due to the inclusion of undocumented individuals, and that similar losses are projected for the 2030 census.

However, projections from Election Data Services last month do not indicate seat losses for these four states in the 2030 census. Instead, California, New York, and Illinois—states with Democratic majorities—are predicted to experience the most significant losses.

The Census Bureau did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Critics of the 2020 census citizenship question argued it discouraged participation among immigrants and undocumented residents, leading to inaccurate data. A 2023 Census Bureau simulation indicated a significant undercount of non-citizens, occurring during the final year of President Trump’s first term and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Demographers anticipate the Trump administration will modify or reverse recent Biden administration actions concerning U.S. statistical agencies. This includes combining race and ethnicity questions and adding a Middle Eastern and North African category.

Planned questions on sexual orientation and gender identity are also expected to be at risk. Concerns exist that President Trump will politicize the Census Bureau through numerous politically appointed officials with limited experience, mirroring actions from his first term. The Heritage Foundation’s “Project 2025” recommends placing “committed political appointees and like-minded career employees” in the bureau to advance a conservative agenda.

Andrew Beveridge, a census expert, expressed concerns about the potential for politically motivated appointments, stating that President Trump would likely repeat previous attempts to influence the census.