Two months into the measles outbreak, public health officials are predicting it will continue for several more months and believe the official case count is lower than reality.
However, there is a positive aspect: Texas and New Mexico have seen an increase in measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccinations compared to the previous year, even though the numbers are not as high as officials would prefer. Pharmacies across the U.S., especially in Texas, are experiencing increased demand for MMR shots.
As of Friday, Texas had 309 reported cases and one death related to measles, while New Mexico had 42 cases and one death. Across both states, 42 individuals have been hospitalized.
The outbreak in Texas, largely affecting undervaccinated Mennonite communities, could potentially last a year, based on previous measles outbreaks within Amish communities in the U.S. Studies showed those outbreaks lasting six to seven months, according to Katherine Wells, director of public health in Lubbock, Texas. Lubbock’s hospitals have been treating most of the patients, and the health department is actively assisting in the response.
Wells stated during a media briefing that controlling the outbreak will require significant effort and resources due to its rural and multi-state nature. She emphasized that it’s not confined to an isolated population.
The outbreak has spread to 14 counties in Texas, two in New Mexico, and there are four probable cases in Oklahoma, with health officials linking the first two cases to the outbreaks in West Texas and New Mexico.
Measles is highly contagious and difficult to contain, with outbreaks potentially having multiple peaks, according to Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist at the University of North Carolina’s Gillings School of Global Public Health.
Many people unknowingly spread measles for days before the characteristic rash appears. The virus can also linger in the air for up to two hours after an infected person has left a room.
Lessler suggests that the outbreak within the affected community could persist for another couple of months before subsiding. However, if it spreads to another community, the process could restart.
Dr. William Moss, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at Johns Hopkins University, notes that if the outbreak continues until next January, the U.S. could lose its status of having eliminated measles, which requires 12 months without local transmission.
Moss believes that a strong response emphasizing the importance of measles vaccination could prevent the outbreak from lasting 12 months or more. However, he feels that such a response is lacking, particularly from the federal government.
U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has instead cast doubt on the measles vaccine, despite its 60-year history of safe and effective use (97% effective after two doses). In a Fox News interview, Kennedy claimed MMR shots cause “deaths every year,” although he later stated that vaccinations should be encouraged.
Vaccinations are up in Texas and New Mexico
Despite the challenges, there are indications that the outbreak has spurred increased vaccination rates, especially locally.
The New Mexico Department of Health registered 6,500 measles vaccines between February 1 and March 18 last year. During the same period this year, over 11,600 measles vaccines were administered in New Mexico, with approximately half given to adults and half to children.
Southeast New Mexico, the location of the outbreak, accounts for a significant portion of this increase, with 2,369 doses administered.
In Texas, at least 173,000 measles doses were administered between January 1 and March 16, compared to at least 158,000 during the same period last year, according to the state health department. This includes over 340 doses given by public health in the West Texas outbreak area as of March 11.
Texas utilizes an opt-in immunization registry, meaning that most people’s vaccinations are not included in the state’s data, according to department spokeswoman Lara Anton.
Anton stated that it is uncertain whether the increase reflects more people opting into the registry or a genuine rise in vaccinations, suggesting it could be a combination of both factors.
Pharmacy chains Walgreens and CVS have reported increased demand for MMR vaccines across the U.S., particularly in areas affected by the outbreak.
Texas health officials are urging for greater vaccination uptake in the outbreak’s epicenter communities, particularly in Gaines County, where the childhood vaccination rate against measles is 82%. This falls significantly short of the 95% threshold needed to prevent community spread and is likely even lower in the small religious schools and homeschooling groups where the initial cases were identified.
Prasad Ganji, a pharmacist in Seminole, Gaines County’s largest town, ordered a 10-dose box of the MMR vaccine when cases began to emerge.
He is authorized to administer vaccines to individuals over 14, but he still has doses remaining.
Wells acknowledged that vaccine uptake has been a struggle in Gaines County.
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