TikTok Supreme Court

The TikTok ban is imminent on January 19th, but the app’s fate remains uncertain. Experts predict a significant decline in user experience regardless of the immediate outcome.

Will users still be able to access TikTok?

Complete shutdown is highly probable. TikTok’s lawyer suggested the app would become inaccessible if the court didn’t halt the ban. Reuters reported that TikTok is preparing for a Sunday shutdown, directing users to a message acknowledging the ban and offering data download options – mirroring the situation in India since 2020.

A complete website block would exceed legal requirements, which primarily target app stores and third-party providers. If ByteDance solely adhered to these rules, new downloads would cease. Existing users, however, could still access the app without legal repercussions.

However, the inability to update the software would lead to increased bugs, slower performance, and weakened security, making users more vulnerable to hacking. Essentially, TikTok would face a slow decline as its technology deteriorates and users migrate to alternative platforms.

Is using a VPN an option?

Many users might try VPNs to circumvent the ban. VPNs mask location data, making users appear to be elsewhere. Following X’s ban in Brazil, VPN demand surged, despite government fines.

Kate Ruane of the Center for Democracy and Technology (CDT) suggests VPNs offer legal access (the CDT supports TikTok). However, she anticipates degraded performance, especially for video, due to increased data transfer distances.

Bruce Randall Donald, a Duke University professor, adds that VPN effectiveness might be limited on smartphones, TikTok’s primary platform, suggesting better results on laptops or desktops, though those experiences are less optimal.

Will the U.S. government intervene?

Some legislators, including Senator Ed Markey, proposed the Extend the TikTok Deadline Act to delay the ban. However, given the original ban’s bipartisan support, this bill’s success is uncertain.

President-elect Trump also expressed interest in a delay, advocating for a “political resolution.” A temporary pause is possible if ByteDance initiates a sale, but the company maintains it’s not selling TikTok.

Trump could also instruct the Justice Department to not enforce the law. The Solicitor General stated the President has this discretion but noted that continued operation would violate the law.

Ruane echoes this, stating that companies could still face legal risk even with non-enforcement, fearing potential future penalties.

Donald predicts many service providers will prioritize compliance due to potential risks to their market capitalization and shareholder interests.

Although users might find loopholes, significant impediments to service are anticipated. Government intervention appears unlikely. Therefore, creators should consider alternative platforms.