On Tuesday, voters are heading to the polls to elect their next governors, just days after Barack Obama visited both critical states to support Democratic candidates. However, President Donald Trump, the Republican Party’s most prominent figure, has largely refrained from engaging in either of these contests.
Unlike previous election cycles, where Trump extensively toured states with the most competitive races and campaigned for Republicans, he did not hold any in-person campaign events for either state’s gubernatorial contender—Virginia Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears or New Jersey’s . On Monday night, Trump was slated to participate in virtual “tele-rallies” for both campaigns from Washington. He also commented on his social media platform Truth Social late Monday regarding the races, urging voters in both states to support Republicans and declaring a “vote for the Democrats” as “a DEATH WISH!”
In recent months, the President’s approval ratings have stayed just above 40% in Gallup polling, potentially making him a disadvantage in general elections in states like Virginia and New Jersey, where both parties have achieved statewide victories in recent years. A survey released Monday indicated Trump’s approval rating stood at 37%, his lowest point of his second term.
Douglas Heye, a seasoned Republican strategist, suggests that Trump appearing in either state to host a rally at this moment would likely harm a Republican candidate more than help. “The Democrats are attempting to frame this as a referendum on Trump, throughout the ballot, given his poll numbers. Staging a large rally would only amplify that,” Heye observed.
The election outcomes on Tuesday will be closely scrutinized for signs of which party is better positioned for next year’s midterm elections, which could alter the balance of power on Capitol Hill. Republicans hold narrow majorities in both the House and Senate. Yet, Democrats are particularly hopeful that voter dissatisfaction with Trump’s actions will lead to enough Democratic votes to hand House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries the chamber’s gavel, initiating two years of Democratic oversight of Trump’s policies and investigations into actions Trump has taken that have encroached upon powers constitutionally assigned to Congress.
Political analysts are closely observing both gubernatorial races for any indications of Democratic weaknesses. In New Jersey, recent polls have revealed a tight contest between Ciattarelli and Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill. Ciattarelli has asserted that New Jersey would receive greater support from the White House if he were elected, and he has awarded Trump’s second term an “A” grade. However, he has been careful not to fully align with Trump, adopting some differing stances on immigration and energy. “A relationship is important. That doesn’t mean we don’t disagree,” Ciattarelli explained to TIME in an interview.
In Virginia, Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger is leading in polls against Earle-Sears, who has received mild support from Trump. The state’s gubernatorial elections typically occur one year after the presidential campaign, and historically, the party that secured the White House often loses Virginia’s Executive Mansion the following year.
Trump has shown greater detachment from Earle-Sears’ campaign compared to Ciattarelli. When Trump spoke at a celebration of the U.S. Navy’s 250th anniversary at Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia on October 5, he did not mention Earle-Sears, the state’s current lieutenant governor and a former Marine. At an Oval Office event concerning drug pricing on October 13, Trump welcomed Virginia’s outgoing Governor Glenn Youngkin and wished Virginia Republicans “good luck with the upcoming election” but again omitted Earle-Sears’ name.
In recent weeks, Trump has focused more public attention on the mayoral race in his hometown of New York City, where a democratic socialist is leading in polls against former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Silwa. In a 60 Minutes interview aired Sunday, Trump effectively endorsed Cuomo, a Democrat running as an independent after losing his party’s nomination to Mamdani.
“I’m not a fan of Cuomo one way or the other, but if it’s gonna be between a bad Democrat and a Communist, I’m gonna pick the bad Democrat all the time, to be honest with you,” he remarked on the program.
On Monday evening, Trump went a step further, stating on social media that Cuomo was the sole viable candidate to defeat Mamdani, who, he claimed, would leave the city with “ZERO chance of success, or even survival!”
“Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice,” Trump wrote in the post. “You must vote for him, and hope he does a fantastic job. He is capable of it, Mamdani is not!”
