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Mark Carney secured a full term as Canada’s prime minister on Monday, campaigning largely on countering policies from U.S. President Donald Trump. While climate change wasn’t a central campaign theme beyond Carney’s adjustment of his predecessor’s carbon tax, his established reputation as a leading voice on climate and finance positions him as a climate-conscious leader that the environmental movement can support.
Carney’s emergence as a climate-focused prime minister, despite not emphasizing climate during his campaign, gains significance when compared to Claudia Sheinbaum’s election in Mexico last year. Sheinbaum, a climate scientist, also avoided the topic during her campaign, choosing to focus on continuing her predecessor’s social programs. (The previous president seldom addressed climate issues.)
Consequently, the U.S., under Trump’s rollback of climate policies, finds itself as the regional outlier, caught between two countries with climate-minded leaders. This has implications for the traditional alliance between the three nations. Furthermore, the successes of both Carney and Sheinbaum present an opportunity for reflection. For the past 15 years, U.S. advocates have pushed for climate to be a more prominent political issue, believing it would lead to more climate-focused elected officials and, subsequently, better climate policy. However, as seen with the Biden administration, the results have been mixed, with significant climate policies enacted but their long-term sustainability remaining uncertain.
Carney and Sheinbaum offer a chance to evaluate a different approach. Few climate change experts would have chosen a strategy of actively avoiding discussing the climate crisis. However, if these two leaders can strategically implement climate policy while the public’s attention remains on trade, geopolitics, and economic issues, they could establish a new model for climate leadership.
Anyone familiar with the intersection of climate and economics is likely acquainted with Carney. A former Goldman Sachs investment banker, he led Canada’s central bank starting in 2008 and later the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020. After his tenure in monetary policy, he prioritized climate action, becoming Vice Chairman at Brookfield Asset Management in Toronto, where he oversaw the firm’s ESG portfolio and impact investing, launching funds to finance clean energy investments in developing countries. Additionally, from 2021, he chaired the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, aiding financial institutions in advancing the energy transition. Over the past five years, Carney’s name has been consistently mentioned in discussions about climate finance.
As the Canadian election progressed, I revisited my notes from a 2022 conversation with Carney. We discussed various topics, including nuclear energy’s role and the disparity between climate goals and policies, with a particular emphasis on the role of financial institutions in driving the transition.
However, a simple, almost cliché statement stood out: “We need to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time.” While we were discussing the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on fossil fuel producers, the sentiment is equally applicable today.
To an activist focused on large-scale systemic change, Carney’s proposals, detailed in the “Build” section of his campaign website, might seem less inspiring than ambitious ideas like a Green New Deal or a carbon tax. However, his proposals, including tax incentives, transition bonds, and a carbon border adjustment mechanism, are designed to achieve progress. “Different parties, different individuals have different views on whether you use pricing or regulation or subsidies,” he told me in 2022. “Spoiler alert: It is always some combination of the three.”
These measures might be subtle enough to avoid opposition while still providing companies with the necessary support to continue investing in the energy transition.
In Mexico, Sheinbaum, who contributed to significant U.N. climate science reports before entering politics, is expected to moderate her predecessor’s climate approach. She has pledged to increase renewable energy and cap oil production, but these promises have been secondary to her focus on Trump’s trade policies.
Does it matter that the U.S. is at odds with its neighbors, positioned between a climate scientist to the South and a climate economist to the North? The immediate impact might be limited, but the long-term significance should not be underestimated.
Trump’s policies necessitate a near-complete revision of international norms. For many countries, these new norms will include climate action. Carney’s campaign site mentions a border tax. Furthermore, both Canada and Mexico possess significant mineral supply chains crucial for the energy transition. While both leaders have expressed interest in collaborating with the U.S., they might also opt to partner with more dependable nations.
“Critical minerals in particular are a potentially useful tool,” Canada’s energy and natural resources minister Jonathan Wilkinson noted in March, suggesting the possibility of partnering with other countries to develop these resources, potentially excluding the U.S. However, “we’re not there yet.”
It is easy to foresee such a scenario developing soon.
This story is supported by a partnership with and Journalism Funding Partners. TIME is solely responsible for the content.
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