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President Donald Trump’s poll numbers are declining, and his approval rating isn’t much better. However, this doesn’t necessarily indicate the complete picture.
The negative headlines are hard to ignore, even for those trying to avoid or deny his second term. Trump’s actions against government employees have resulted in job losses and reduced the federal workforce to levels seen in the 1960s. CNN reports that at least 120,000 federal positions have been cut or are slated for reduction. Trump’s focus on budget cuts, despite overall spending increases, has significantly decreased contracts with external companies and vendors, often without a clear substitute for their services. The constant chaos is evident in daily outrages and a continuous flow of information.
The U.S. economy is declining even faster than patience with the White House, due to trade war concerns driven by increasing and seemingly illogical tariffs.
On Wednesday, as markets fell again and the Commerce Department announced the U.S. economy actually shrank in the first quarter, Trump blamed his predecessor. He posted on social media, “This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s.” (Despite claiming in January of the previous year that Biden didn’t deserve credit for a rising market, arguing investors were profiting from the expectation of Trump’s return.) He reiterated this during a Cabinet meeting to mark his first 100 days in office.
“That’s Biden. That’s not Trump. … We came in and I was very against everything that Biden was doing,” Trump said at the start of the meeting. He then conceded that the prices of many goods might soon increase. “Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, and maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more,” he said.
This illustrates three difficult truths: Trump realizes the economy isn’t performing as he had hoped, the worst may be yet to come, and voters are increasingly seeking someone to hold accountable.
Recent polls show Trump’s approval rating at around a third of Americans. This is a slight decrease from his first term, when a dedicated MAGA base remained steadfast. However, this time Trump’s base might be less reliable, particularly if the economy continues to decline and he is blamed.
Trump returned to Washington promising cheaper groceries, lower inflation, and significant job growth. However, fulfilling these promises has proven more challenging than winning more electoral votes than Kamala Harris. His inconsistent performance has caused market instability, and his disregard for tradition continues to unsettle Washington insiders and Wall Street investors. The impact has so far been around 16 points in Trump’s polling, leaving him with a double-digit deficit, but the full impact is still unfolding.
The warning signs are apparent. Economists are increasingly worried about a potential recession if Trump’s tariffs remain in place. The supply of inexpensive goods from China is expected to dry up as early as next month, potentially leading to shelves that resemble those seen during the early stages of the pandemic. Businesses are slowing down expansions and investments, and families are postponing major purchases.
Trump is doing little to ease these concerns. After a brief pause, he has resumed criticizing the Federal Reserve over interest rates, unsettling a market that values stability. The Republican-led House and Senate are struggling to advance their legislative agenda as the White House’s priorities and boundaries shift erratically. Confused business leaders are finding it difficult to understand the situation in D.C.; General Motors’ chief financial officer told reporters this week that forecasts were simply “a guess amidst what the Administration might do.”
The magnitude of Trump’s challenges is matched only by their potential consequences. Americans share a negative view of the economy; according to a CNN poll , 59% believe Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions. The same survey reveals that 69% of the public expects a recession within the next two years, and 72% believe the tariffs will negatively impact the U.S. economy. In short, Americans don’t accept Trump’s economic outlook and are likely to blame him for any problems.
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