The Biden administration’s January 13th restrictions on advanced AI computer chip exports followed two significant holiday developments in the AI field.
First, OpenAI’s o3 model achieved an 88% score on complex reasoning tests, surpassing all previous AI systems. Francois Chollet, a former Google AI researcher, noted this necessitates a reassessment of AI capabilities.
Second, DeepSeek’s open-source AI model outperformed all American open-source language models, including Meta’s Llama series. This surprised many, given the US-led embargo on advanced AI chip sales to China. DeepSeek’s success demonstrated China’s progress despite these restrictions.
These events highlighted the rapid advancement of AI. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman predicted the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) within the next four years, suggesting China might lead the way.
This underscored the urgency for some US officials to restrict China’s AI access for national security reasons. Achieving AGI first offers significant strategic advantages, including scientific breakthroughs and advanced technologies.
The Biden administration intensified existing export control policies, originally implemented under Trump, limiting China’s access to advanced chips. Despite 2022 export restrictions, China stockpiled chips, enabling the development of cutting-edge AI systems, as evident with DeepSeek v3.
Shortly before Trump’s return to office, the Biden administration finalized stricter chip sanctions, aiming to curb smuggling through new quotas and licensing requirements for advanced chip sales, except to close allies.
Unless repealed by the Trump administration, these policies will take effect in 120 days. Greg Allen of the CSIS predicts Trump might support these measures, given the crucial AI competition with China and the rapid advancements seen in models like OpenAI’s o3. While Trump is unpredictable, many of his advisors are known to favor a tough stance on China. Allen supports the new rules, calling them a significant step to hinder China’s AI development.
However, the new rules face opposition. Nvidia, a major player in the US AI chip industry, criticized the Biden administration, claiming the restrictions would benefit China and stifle innovation. Nvidia’s statement also credited Trump with building the foundation for US AI success.
Allen acknowledges that the restrictions might push buyers towards China, but argues this shift won’t be rapid enough. He points to the long lead times for chip manufacturing, suggesting China lacks the time to become a competitive supplier before AGI is potentially achieved. Without access to American chips, Allen states, China will essentially have no advanced AI chips.